The 2013 Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections were released earlier this month. As Chris noted, PECOTA actually thinks that the Mets might be a decent squad, slating them for third place in the NL East with an 80-82 record.
However, I always find it more interesting to dig into the particulars of the PECOTA projections, looking for the biggest risers and fallers(?) season over season. For example, after a 2012 campaign where he posted a -1.5 WARP (sticking with Baseball Prospectus acronyms), PECOTA envisions Lucas Duda bouncing back to produce a 1.2 season in 2013. Conversely, coming off the heels of a career season, PECOTA expects David Wright to regress in 2013.
And then there's Jordany Valdespin. PECOTA expects that in about a half-season of reps Valdespin will bat .246, knock eight home runs, steal 17 bases and post an on-base around .280. In short, pretty much the same season he had in 2012. He's projected to post a 0.5 WARP -- again the exact same mark as last season. To further confirm PECOTA's expectations, Valdespin was tagged with a 49% Improve Rate; a player who is expected to perform just the same as he has in the recent past will have an Improve Rate of 50 percent. However, is there cause for Mets fans to expect more than what we saw from the 25-year-old in 2012?
Will Jordany Valdespin Surprise Us In 2013?
Amazin' Avenue | Feb 18