Too gain your trust as a new guy here, I want to share something with you: Colby Rasmus had me, hook, line and sinker.
On July 13 of last year, I wrote this piece, wondering if Rasmus' "break out" was for real or a mirage. If you don't want to read it and just want to laugh at me, here is the concluding paragraph from that article:
The statistical profile, combined with the fitting narrative of having worked through the kinks of growing up as a major leaguer and the obvious change in swing mechanics, means we can be guardedly optimistic that 2010 and 2012 Colby, a 25-year old center-fielder with plus defense and an emerging profile as a well above-average hitter, is the Colby that we'll get to enjoy for a long time.
So…yeah. From that date on, Rasmus fell apart. He OPS'd .657, .508 and .575 in July, August and September respectively, dropping his season OPS down to .689. He had a .289 on-base percentage, which is Arencibia-esque, and not at all what was expected of him, especially since he got 408 plate appearances batting second.
Anyway, his seasonal OPS+ finished at just 85. Thanks to defensive contributions, mostly from being an average defender at a difficult position, he ended up being worth 1.4 wins above replacement, per B-Ref and Fangraphs. It made for a season that was slightly better than his 2011 in value terms but still well below his okay rookie season in 2009 and his excellent 2010 season.
To be fair, at 1.4 wins, he's still well worth is $4.7M contract for 2013, but the expectations were much higher for Rasmus, and his growth could be the key difference between a good lineup and a great lineup for the Jays.
Trying to Figure Out Colby Rasmus
Bluebird Banter | Jan 28