I just wrote a post at FanGraphs about the playoff implications of the Houston Astros moving to the AL West in 2013, and in conducting the research for that post, I crossed my fingers that I'd be able to find some recently generated regular-season standings projections. The only ones I'd come across earlier were from the beginning of December. Not only was I able to find projected standings generated recently -- I was able to find projected standings generated on Monday. Voila!
It's based on the CAIRO projection system. I believe it uses these depth charts. You know the deal. Projection systems are flawed, they're purely numeric, depth charts can be misleading, and the offseason isn't over yet. Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse remain unsigned, and the Mariners' front office remains unfinished. You know not to take these things as gospel, but you also know they're interesting, because they give you an idea of where the various teams stand. And where does the Mariners' team stand, by these numbers and simulations?
in the division
with 67 wins
The good news is that, sure enough, the Mariners currently project to be better than the Astros. They project to be the same as the Twins and worse than everyone else. Worse than the god damned motherfucking Marlins, and I think that's just how I'm going to refer to them from now on until they have a new ownership and management structure. According to the numbers, the Mariners don't look dreadful. But they look relatively dreadful, compared to the rest of the division and the league.
The Seattle Mariners And Projecting Them Standings
Lookout Landing | Jan 29