The statistics don’t lie: The Leafs are facing a lot more shots than they take, and yet sit in first place in the Eastern Conference at 10-4-0 — among the leaders in save percentage and shooting accuracy. Here’s a closer look at why:

The scary

The Leafs have been outshot in eight straight games and 12 out of 14 heading into Saturday night against the Canucks. Their goalies have faced 30 shots or more 13 times, and more than 40 in the last two. With 34.9 shots against per game, only Ottawa (36.3) has faced more rubber.

Corsi and Fenwick metrics suggest there’s more bad news. Corsi is a modern statistic meant to approximate puck possession by measuring goals, shot totals, shots missed and shots blocked. Fenwick, another relatively new stat, takes it a step further by excluding blocked shots.

The Leafs rank 29th in Corsi and Fenwick percentages. According to these stats, the Leafs should not be winning as often as they have. It should be noted that the Leafs are the only first-place team to rank this low in these stats — every other top team is well inside the top 10.

Shots against are also a reflection of turnovers, and the Leafs again are near the bottom of the league when it comes to turning the puck over.

The good

Here’s how good goalies James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier have been: They’ve stopped 92.6 per cent of the shots they have faced, 14th in the league. That rank seems low, but there’s more to the numbers. Five-on-five, their .939 save mark ranks fourth in the NHL behind Montreal, Boston and Colorado. That’s elite company.

The team’s shooting percentage of 12.7 is also top shelf. In a combined stat (shooting percentage plus save percentage, called PDO) they rank fourth at 103.7.

The law of averages

The Leafs rate near the bottom in shot differential at minus-8. Analysis of the last five Stanley Cup winners shows only the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins had a negative number (minus 1.3). Of the last 20 Cup champions, 90 per cent finished in the top 10 in that category.

Widening the search to all teams that made the playoffs: the Leafs were 29th with a minus-5.9 shot differential last season, but still made it. So did Washington (26th) and Vancouver (19th). Comparisons between the Bruins (plus-3.6) and Leafs (minus-5.9) suggested a huge mismatch in the first round last spring, but Toronto took Boston to a seventh game — and would have won had it not been for an epic collapse).

Shots on goal since 1967 suggest NHL teams have remained remarkably consistent: clubs have averaged 28 to 32 shots per game each year.