Agents and executives predict this will be a very active trade season in the NBA, for obvious reasons. As the standings begin to sort themselves out, the calendar marches along and injuries mount, the usual trigger points for deals will intensify.

In addition to the contenders looking to solidify their positions and pretenders trying to give themselves a boost, the list of teams looking to dump players and join the tank-fest for the 2014 draft will begin to grow.

With Derrick Rose out for the year again, for example, we've already had a seismic event in the NBA trade landscape. The Bulls were able to scrape their way through one entire regular season without their MVP, but asking them to do it again is too much. Despite their championship designs before Rose went down, the Bulls are not a luxury tax team, so they don't have payroll to dump for immediate financial reasons. But they do have decisions to make for next year, chiefly with unsigned Luol Deng and soon-to-be 33-year-old Carlos Boozer, who will make $16.8 million next season.

The most difficult variable to calculate is the market for veterans on large expiring contracts. The Knicks giving up a first-round pick in the trade for Andrea Bargnani is exceedingly rare in the current NBA marketplace; typically, an underperforming player with a big salary number next to his name will not fetch a first-round pick anymore. Under the current tax system, potential suitors for such a player would demand a pick in return for the trouble of taking his contract.

So with the understanding that there are more unknowns and unknowables than usual, here's my Black Friday Shopping List -- the 10 players most likely to be traded based on conversations with league GMs:

1. Omer Asik, Rockets. Houston's disgruntled center has been unhappy with his role since the Rockets landed Dwight Howard, and the situation isn't going to get any better. After playing four minutes at Philadelphia on Nov. 13 and riding the bench against the Knicks on Nov. 14, Asik finally logged 20-plus minutes in back-to-back games this week for the first time since early November. The limiting factor, of course, is that while Asik counts only $8.4 million against the cap/tax, his actual salary next season is $15 million. Given those constraints and Asik's sad-sack demeanor, one rival GM described the Rockets as "delusional" as far as their asking price for him.