Whether the Bears deal out of No. 20 in the draft this month or they can’t get the right situation and stay right there, a foundation of the draft plan will be a cluster of anywhere from four to seven possibles worthy of the No. 20 pick. Who will those be? Because that is the starting talent pool that allows trading down.

General Manager Phil Emery is clear that he wants a starter from a first-round pick. Based on several draft rankings (not mock drafts), that pool will have possible starters at more than one position.

Using two indicators

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper slots Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro as the 20th best player in this draft. Either side of that are Alabama tackle D.J. Fluker at 19 and Georgia linebacker Alec Ogletree at 18, with Alabama running back Eddie Lacy 21st and Tennessee wide receiver Cordarelle Patterson 22nd.

Colleague Todd McShay slots West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith at 20, preceded by Florida State defensive end Bjoern Werner 19th and North Carolina defensive tackle Sylvester Williams 18th. After Smith come Fluker at 21 and Washington cornerback Desmond Trufant 22nd. Notably perhaps, Oregon guard/tackle Kyle Long ranks 23rd.

The Bears are extremely unlikely to draft a safety in round one, given that they have drafted safeties in each of the past third rounds (Major Wright, Chris Conte, Brandon Hardin) and two are ensconced as starters.

They are perhaps even less likely to take Smith at 20; they need a promising backup right now, not a starter. Lacy and Patterson are not considered sufficiently high on the Bears’ need index to warrant a No. 1 pick at that level.

But when the Bears’ turn looms on day one (or before), and the actual draft board still shows Long, Ogletree, Williams and Trufant available, the Bears could trade down four picks and be assured of landing one of those four in addition to adding a mid-round pick for their troubles.