This is a time for year for wishful thinking. The 2013 NFL Combine convinces us that certain players are worth more than they are—I'm looking at you, Mike Mamula—and that some players with poor Combine performances will come crashing down to #30 in the first round.

Friends, don't get your hopes up.

There has been plenty of hand-wringing in the past about combine performances, but they're rarely the cause of a draft day plummet. Smart general managers and scouts know that while the drills can tell you a little something about a player's athleticism and what shape he's in, they can't tell you how he'll play on the field. You're better off putting stock into what you've seen from the player on gameday in college and how well you think he'll fit with your football team.

That's why we should not expect Damontre Moore to fall to the Falcons. Moore is having a miserable day at the Combine, managing a pitiful-by-superhuman-NFL-prospect standard 12 reps on the bench and running a 4.87 40 yard dash. If the Combine really mattered, you could expect to see Moore fall into the second half of the first round.

It just doesn't. Moore is considered to be one of the best pass rushers in this draft, and the CBS Sports draft profile compares him to John Abraham. Teams have seen his college production, seen his size and athleticism in games and know he offers considerable upside. He should easily be a Top 15 pick at April's NFL Draft, and if you want to be generous and say these results will spook a few teams, he might be Top 20. But his chances of freefalling to the Atlanta Falcons are slim, unless he dropkicks a baby on his way home this week.