Taking a cue from Thomas Drance's recent series over at PlayNow Sports, I decided to project the Kings' goal totals for this season. Thomas undertook the task of projecting Vancouver's goal totals last season by plugging some numbers into a spreadsheet. He did amazingly well and just about nailed the total number of goals Vancouver would score last year (he projected 247 while they managed 249).
Numbers for individual players were not as accurate (as you might expect), but this season he tweaked his methodology a bit to account for goal scoring outliers (i.e. a spike in shooting percentage) and also took into account prospect's AHL numbers combined with Behind the Net's equivalency data. Mostly though, the methodolgy for coming up with these numbers is actually quite simple. Basically you take a player's goal scoring rate (preferably a sample of at least ~3 seasons) and apply it to whatever you estimate their ice-time to be for the upcoming season.
I decided it might be fun to try this for the Kings and keep track of it as the season progresses. I needed to make a lot of assumptions based on how I thought Darryl Sutter might deploy his players this season. Luckily this didn't require too much guesswork since Dean Lombardi brought back last year's team intact and I spent a lot of time analyzing Sutter's deployment strategies a season ago.
2013 Los Angeles Kings Goal Projections
Jewels From The Crown | Jan 22