Every season player projections are released and fans will continuously debate how they will be wrong. Of course they will be wrong because it is humans playing the game, not computers. Some players will do better, others worse and some will even magically produce how they were projected to perform. Today, I am going to look at how past players performed who had similar projections to the Royals infielders (outfielders, Butler and pitchers will be later).
For the projections, I am using Marcel projections for a few reasons. Marcels projections are the simpilest projections produced, but hold up decently compared to other projections. Also, they are freely available going back to 1901. With the projections, I have created a simple tool. It takes a player's projection for a season. Then, it goes back and looks for players with similar projections and they sees how each of the players actually performed.
With data, I went and looked at the Royals who are likely to see time in the infield and how comparable players (age, playing time, production) performed.
Eric Hosmer (the player's projection is first, then similar players ordered by OPS. Players with an OPS >0.050 on in the first group. +/- 0.050 are in the second group and <0.050 are in the last group)
2013 Breakout Chances: Royals Infielders
Royals Review | Feb 19